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Price Summary
With
the final survey of 2008 now complete, it is possible to
look back on the year. Purely
from an "interest" and survey "analysis"
viewpoint, it is always more exciting when prices are on
the move, whether they adjust up or down. On that measure,
solar photovoltaic pricing certainly could not measure up
to the drama in the hydrocarbon market during 2008.
At
its simplest, this survey provides an indication of whether
retail prices for solar modules are increasing, decreasing
or stable. While online sales are a very small part of the
total photovoltaic market, they do provide a large number
of prices points that can be captured on a consistent basis.
Over short periods of time, however, prices for modules
down one sales channel can move differently to sales down
another (say, direct to the end customer versus direct to
installers).
The
survey still has the largest number of price points from
United States based retailers, followed next by Europe.
This means that the result for the former region is the
most significant.
Since
the survey started in 2001, its correlation with what are
called "factory-gate" prices has been very strong.
This is the price that a manufacturer of solar modules charges
at the first point of arms length sale. These
modules may go through wholesalers before reaching online
retailers, both of which apply their appropriate "mark
up". As a result, retail prices are always higher than
factory-gate prices, a price that is often mentioned within
the industry. Prices in this survey are also based on the
price of purchasing a single module; retail prices for purchases
or more than one unit are typically lower.
With
this context, a review of 2008 shows that a further 18,198
price points were logged in the database this year, an average
of 1,516 per month. Of these 18,198 prices, there were 474
price increases and 381 price decreases over the last 12
months. The remainder consist of either prices that did
not move during the year or new price points added to the
survey (some also drop from the survey). In 7 months of
the year, the number of price increases outpaced decreases,
and in 5 months it was vice versa.
As
the efficiency of solar cells increases year by year, so
higher power modules join the survey. Now, many of the new
modules on the survey have powers of 200 watt or greater.
During
a year characterized by only small overall moves in pricing,
this has meant that the industry has been able to focus
on other aspects of marketing including improvements to
product design, more efficient sales practices and lowering
the cost of installation as volumes increase.
Noting
the lack of price movement this year, there are few aspects
of this industry that are ever "boring" for any
length of time. To conclude with economics, it is worth
remembering that price movements are a simple function of
the supply/demand balance across the global industry. Watch
it carefully - 2009 promises to be a very interesting year.
Lowest
Prices ($/Wp)
The
tracking of the lowest price band in the survey is measured
against the number of prices below $4.75 per watt.
As
of December 2008, there are currently 248 solar module prices
below $4.75 per watt (€3.71 per watt) or 17.2% of the total
survey. This compares with 228 prices below $4.75 per watt
in November. The lowest retail price for a multicrystalline
silicon solar module is $4.10 per watt (€3.20 per watt)
from a US retailer. The lowest retail price for a monocrystalline
silicon module is $4.24 per watt (€3.31 per watt), also
from a US retailer.
The
lowest thin film module price is at $3.02 per watt (€2.35
per watt) from a Germany based retailer. As a general rule,
it is typical to expect thin film modules to be at a price
discount to crystalline silicon (for like module powers).
This thin film price is represented by a 60 watt module.
Note once again, that these prices are based upon the purchase
of a single solar module and prices are exclusive of sales
taxes. Information on volume discounts, factory gate and
PV system pricing is available as part of our consultancy
services.
Price Index Context
The module cost represents around 50 - 60% of the total
installed cost of a Solar Energy System. Therefore the solar
module price
is the key element in the total price of an installed solar
system. All prices are exclusive of sales taxes,
which depending on the country or region can add 8-20% to
the prices, with generally highest sales tax rates in Europe.
LEGAL
DISCLAIMER:
SOLARBUZZ DOES NOT AND CANNOT REPRESENT OR WARRANT THAT
THE DATA IN THIS RETAIL PRICE SURVEY ARE ACCURATE OR
COMPLETE. SOLARBUZZ DISCLAIMS ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED
WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE
DATA. THE DATA ON THIS WEB PAGE ARE PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY.
YOU RELY ON THE ANALYSIS AT YOUR OWN RISK. SOLARBUZZ
SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSEQUENCES OF ANY
DECISIONS RESULTING FROM THE USE OF THE DATA INCLUDING,
BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOSSES OR DAMAGES RESULTED THEREFROM.
NOTHING IN THE DATA SHALL BE CONSIDERED AS AN ENDORSEMENT,
PROMOTION OR ADVERTISING OF ANY COMPANY.
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